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When "Made in China" encounters the most severe tariff blockade in history, is it a gamble of capacity migration or a last-ditch battle of technological breakthrough?
Despite China's rapid countermeasures, the valuation battle of export-oriented enterprises has been started in the capital market in advance - on April 7, the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, A shares ushered in the most tragic one-day crash since the 2015 stock market disaster, staging a realistic version of the "tariff disaster film".
First, 34% tariff strangulation, the stock market plummeted in history
On April 7, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 7.34% at 3,096.58 points, its biggest one-day fall since February 2020. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 9.66%, the biggest drop since December 1996. Gem index plunged 12.5%, the largest one-day decline in history! The total market value of the whole market evaporated 7.6 trillion yuan in a single day, equivalent to 1.2 Guizhou province's GDP.
In terms of individual stocks, 2,902 individual stocks fell by the limit, accounting for 54.9% of the total number of A-shares (5,286), including heavyweight stocks such as Ningde Times and BYD; Eighty-three percent of stocks fell more than 9 percent, while only 106 stocks rose. The scale of this limit far exceeds the "thousand shares limit" during the trade friction in 2018, and even exceeds the market panic on April 25, 2022.
Second, the plastics industry can not escape containment, more than 10 listed companies emergency response
As a highly sensitive export industry to the United States, the plastic plate has become the hardest hit area - Zhonglun new materials (down 20%), polypetrochemical (down 20%) and other stocks have been blocked all day. In the face of 34% tariff death, enterprises threw out a response plan overnight: some accelerated the construction of Indonesian base (Fuling shares bet on 2025 capacity transfer), some hope FOB mode to transfer costs (Xinbao shares, Jiayi shares), and some enterprises bet on technology upgrading to break through tariff barriers (Jindan Technology launched a product siege war under 50.1% tariff).
The capital markets earthquake triggered by the tariffs is testing the resilience of the global supply chains of China's export-oriented companies. When "Made in China" encounters the most severe tariff blockade in history, is it a gamble of capacity migration or a last-ditch battle of technological breakthrough? The response of subsequent enterprises may reshape the competitive landscape of the entire industry.
Enterprises deeply dependent on the US market: capacity transfer and overseas layout face new challenges
1. Fuling Shares (001356.SZ, plastic straws, etc.)
Market dependence: The United States is the core market, accounting for more than 65% of revenue to the United States in 2023 and the first half of 2024, which has been affected by 25% tariffs.
Existing measures: Deployment of production capacity through bases in the United States, Indonesia and Mexico, but the Taizhou base in China still undertakes most of the production and is highly dependent on exports to the United States. The construction of the new base in Indonesia will start in the second half of 2024, and it is planned to put into partial production in the third to fourth quarter of 2025, aiming to undertake China's export capacity to the United States.
New challenges: Indonesia has been imposed 32% tariff, if the new base is not put into production on schedule (there is uncertainty about the progress of the project), China's direct supply products may be forced to reduce prices to maintain customers, compressed profit margins in the short term.
Risk warning: Overseas base production capacity accounts for less than 20%, tariffs and rising raw material costs, the first half of 2025 performance pressure.
Cost control and market diversification under the impact of high tariffs
2. Jindan Technology (300829.SZ, bio-based materials)
Tariff impact: The export tariff of lactic acid and polylactic acid products to the United States reached 50.1%, directly pushing up the export cost, forcing prices to increase or compress profits.
Coping strategies:
Product upgrading: The company will continue to optimize its product mix, implement differentiated product mix strategies, and improve product added value and economic benefits.
Cost optimization: Further strengthen cost control and management, reduce production costs by optimizing production processes, improving production efficiency, and reducing raw material procurement costs.
Market transfer: Adhere to the expansion of key foreign markets, accelerate the implementation of international strategic layout, and consolidate and improve the operational quality and management level of European companies.
Technology research and development: The company will continue to increase investment in technology research and development and innovation, improve product quality and service levels, so as to better respond to market changes and the impact of tariff policies.
Low dependence and anti-risk advantage of FOB model
3. Dawn Shares (002838.SZ, modified plastics)
Proportion of overseas revenue: the company's overseas revenue in 2024 accounted for 14.83%, and the proportion of business exported to the United States was very small, and the US tariff increase had little impact on the company.
Competitive advantage: The domestic demand for new energy and lightweight vehicles is strong, and the operating income will reach 5.301 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 16.65% year-on-year, offsetting overseas fluctuations.
4. Xinbao Shares (002705.SZ, Small household appliances)
Transaction mode: FOB mode is adopted, the tariff is borne by the buyer, and the direct cost impact is limited. The company has business all over the world, and its export sales account for 70%-80%, among which the sales in the North American market account for 30%-40% of the company's export sales. The company will pay close attention to changes in relevant tariff policies and actively respond to them, and will actively seek various strategies to further reduce the potential impact of tariffs to ensure the stable operation of the company.
5. Jiayi Shares (301004.SZ, thermos cup)
Transaction mode: The transaction mode between the company and the main customers is mainly carried out in FOB trade mode, and the freight and tariff of FOB mode are mainly borne by the customers. At present, the company's production and operation are all normal.
Global capacity layout and supply chain localization
6. Tianzhen Shares (301356.SZ, new composite materials)
American localization: The company and customers mainly use FOB mode of settlement, the tariff is borne by the customer, and the direct impact is limited. The planned capacity of the company's American factory is 20 million square meters. Some raw materials, equipment and spare parts produced and operated by U.S. factories involve imports from other countries and will be affected by tariff policies.
7. Bowei Alloy (601137.SH, copper alloy, photovoltaic material)
Regional division of labor: Vietnam's newly built 3GW battery expansion project, the future sales market for Europe, India. New materials business, the company's new materials base in Vietnam is mainly sold to Southeast Asia, Vietnam and some domestic orders sold to the US market, can minimize the impact of tariffs through business design.
Market transfer and risk hedging
8. Yiyi Shares (001206.SZ, Pet mat)
Capacity advantage: At present, global production capacity is highly concentrated in China, and there are only a handful of suppliers with large-scale supply capacity. Historically, the company's exports to the United States in 2018 were only briefly imposed tariffs, and the high uncertainty of tariff policy still needs to be further observed. At this stage, the company is actively communicating with customers to jointly explore coping strategies. At the same time, the company will also increase its efforts to develop new international markets and customer resources, such as parts of Europe, as well as Southeast Asia, South America and other regions where the pet economy is rising. In addition, the company has always adhered to the dual drive strategy of foreign and domestic markets to achieve continuous improvement of business income at home and abroad to improve the ability to resist risks.
9. Daotong Technology (688208.SH, Intelligent detection equipment)
Quick response: The production base has been laid out in low-tariff countries or regions, and it is expected to achieve manufacturing substitution within 1 month to avoid tariff risks.
Segments that are less affected
Zhonglun New Materials (301565.SZ, Double pull PA, PLA film) : In 2024, the company's direct export of products to the United States accounted for a very low proportion of the company's total revenue, so this round of tariffs will have little impact on the company's operations.
Lushan New Material (603051.SH, hot melt adhesive, optical adhesive film) : At present, the company has not formed large-scale sales in the United States, the company's overseas orders and customers are mainly concentrated in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the European Union and Africa and other regions, the United States imposed tariffs on China currently has no impact on the company's overseas business.
Sanmei Shares (603379.SH, fluorine chemical) : the proportion of exports to the United States decreased from 5% in 2022 to less than 2% in 2024, the main markets are the Middle East, Japan and South Korea, and the tariff has no substantial impact;
Guangxinmaterials (300537.SZ, electronic chemicals) : PVC floor coating business has been transferred to Southeast Asia with the industrial chain, the current revenue of the United States is relatively low, focusing on the domestic PCB, photoresist market;
Changhua Chemical (301518.SZ, polyether polyol) : In 2023, the company's overseas business revenue accounted for 14% of its total revenue, of which exports to the United States accounted for a relatively small proportion.
Iii. Summary: Risk differentiation under differentiation strategy
Highly dependent enterprises (such as Fuling) : short-term pressure, long-term to see the progress of overseas production capacity and technology upgrading effect;
FOB model and low-dependence enterprises (such as Xinbao and Dawn) : the direct impact is small, and customers need to be wary of transferring orders to competing products in Southeast Asia due to cost;
Enterprises with global layout (such as Tianzhen and Bowei) : benefit from the localization of the supply chain, but need to balance the cost of overseas base construction and the benefit of tariff reduction.
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