I. Strong Policy Implementation: From "Restriction" to "Ban", the Whole Country Enters a Period of Strict Enforcement
From 2025 to 2026, domestic plastic restriction policies will enter a stage of intensive implementation and strict enforcement.
At the national level, the "Action Plan for Plastic Pollution Control during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period" clearly states that by the end of 2025, non-biodegradable plastic bags will be banned in the business districts of cities at or above the prefectural level, including supermarkets, pharmacies, and bookstores. In the field of food delivery, the usage rate of biodegradable tableware should reach at least 30%. The proportion of non-biodegradable packaging in the express delivery industry should be significantly reduced.
At the local level: More than 30 provinces and municipalities including Hainan, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Beijing have issued local "plastic ban" regulations. Hainan has implemented a complete ban on plastic throughout the province, while Shanghai and Guangzhou have covered all key commercial areas. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces are advancing simultaneously at the county level. The penalties for violations have been significantly increased (up to 10 times the value of the goods).
International coordination: The EU's "Single-Use Plastics Directive" and the plastic restriction orders in California and New York State of the United States have created global compliance pressure. Export enterprises must adopt degradable packaging, which indirectly boosts domestic demand.
Core conclusion: The plastic restriction has shifted from "advocacy" to "compulsion". The policy red line is clear and the enforcement loop is formed. The substitution demand for degradable materials is rigid, long-term and irreversible.
II. Market Space: A Trillion-yuan Track with Strongly Determined High Growth
Demand scale: Explosive growth from 2025 to 2030
In 2024, the consumption of degradable plastics in China is expected to be approximately 680,000 tons, with a market size of 15 to 18 billion yuan.
By 2025, the demand for the four core scenarios (plastic bags, tableware, agricultural film, and express packaging) will be approximately 2.5 million tons, with a market size of over 50 billion yuan.
By 2030, the demand will exceed 2.8 million tons, with a market size of 60 to 80 billion yuan, and a compound annual growth rate of 25% to 30%.
2. Structural breakdown: Packaging + Catering + Agriculture as the core
Packaging (accounting for 52%): Express delivery bags, shopping bags, and food films. Policies mandate their replacement as the top priority.
Catering (accounting for 28%): Takeout containers and disposable tableware. The target penetration rate by 2025 is 30%.
Agriculture (15%): Biodegradable mulching film, addressing "white pollution" + increasing yield (by 5% to 8%).
Others (5%): Medical care, textiles, daily necessities, etc. have long-term potential for market penetration.
III. Supply Pattern: Dual Upgrades in Technology and Capacity, Acceleration of Localization
Mainstream materials: PBAT and PLA as the two main lines, with PHA as a high-end supplement.
PBAT (accounting for 45% of production capacity): Good flexibility, easy to degrade, the main force in agricultural film and shopping bags, domestic technology is mature and production capacity is expanding rapidly.
PLA (accounting for 30% of production capacity): High strength, good transparency, the main material for tableware and food packaging. The domestic production of key raw material lactide has made a breakthrough, and the cost is continuously decreasing.
PHA (less than 5%): Fully biodegradable in all environments (sea water/soil), high-end exports/medical applications, leading global technology in China but with high costs.
2. Capacity Expansion: By the end of 2025, domestic production capacity will exceed 3 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of over 80%.
Leading enterprises such as Golden Tech, Jindan Tech, Huaheng Bio, and COFCO Tech are accelerating their production expansion, with individual plant capacities ranging from 100,000 to 300,000 tons.
Regional clusters: Northwest (raw material base), East China (PLA/PHA R&D), South China (packaging applications) form industrial synergy.
Cost reduction: Through large-scale production and technological progress, the price of PBAT has dropped from 30,000 yuan per ton to 18,000 - 20,000 yuan per ton, and that of PLA has decreased from 40,000 yuan per ton to 25,000 - 30,000 yuan per ton. These prices are now close to 2 - 3 times that of traditional plastics (PE at about 8,000 yuan per ton), making them economically feasible.
IV. Long-term Logic: Triple-Driven by Policies, Carbon Neutrality, and Consumption Upgrading
Policy-driven: The "plastic ban" has been continuously strengthened over the long term, and the standard system has been improved.
Policy cycle: "Pilot + promotion" from 2020 to 2025, "Comprehensive ban on plastic + closed-loop governance" from 2025 to 2030, and entering regular supervision after 2030.
Standard upgrade: The implementation of national standards such as "Full Biodegradable Plastic Marking" and "Biodegradable Plastic Shopping Bags" has led to the elimination of fake biodegradable products, enhancing the industry's concentration.
2. Carbon Neutrality Drive: Biobased Materials Are a Low-Carbon Necessity
Carbon emission reduction: PLA/PBAT has a 30% to 70% lower carbon footprint compared to traditional petroleum-based plastics, aligning with the "dual carbon" goals and qualifying for policy subsidies and tax benefits (including immediate VAT refund).
Circular economy: Biodegradable materials naturally decompose without leaving residues, solving the problem of plastic recycling and aligning with the path of "reducing at the source, resource utilization, and harmless disposal".
3. Consumption Upgrade: Green consumption becomes mainstream, and consumers' acceptance of premium prices increases.
85% of Gen Z consumers are willing to pay a 10% to 20% premium for eco-friendly products. The annual sales growth rate of the "biodegradable product zones" in supermarkets and e-commerce platforms has exceeded 50%.
Brand owners such as Starbucks, McDonald's, Tmall and JD.com have committed to making all their packaging 100% degradable by 2025-2030, and the supply chain is being pushed to accelerate the substitution.
V. Investment Themes: Focus on Enterprises with Technological Leadership, Capacity Expansion and Cost Advantages
PLA industry chain: Breakthrough in domestic production of lactide (Jindan Technology, Huaheng Bio), PLA products (Kingfa Science & Technology).
PBAT industry chain: Integrated capacity expansion (Kingfa Science & Technology, COFCO Technology), leading players in agricultural film and shopping bags.
PHA high-end track: Leading technology enterprises (Bluephage Microbiology, Weigong Workshop), benefiting from export growth and increased application in medical scenarios.
